These Insights might not exist for you but could exist for those who constructed this Disease X-19 Pandemic - M.N. | "No scientist or group of scientists created this virus in a laboratory. That would require insight into [viral] pathogenesis and protein engineering that does not exist..." | The Debates about the Covid-19 Pandemic: Man-made vs. "Nature" continue and intensify.
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The Debates about the Covid-19 Pandemic: Man-made vs. "Nature" continue and intensify. - GS
https://covid-19-review.blogspot.com/2020/06/these-insights-might-not-exist-for-you.html
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These Insights might not exist for you but could exist for those who constructed this Disease X-19 Pandemic - M.N.
"No scientist or group of scientists created this virus in a laboratory. That would require insight into [viral] pathogenesis and protein engineering that does not exist," said Robert Garry, Ph.D., virologist at Tulane University.
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Selected Posts: The Disease X-19
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| Virologists vigorously debunk new study on origins of the novel coronavirus - ABC News | |||||||||||
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| Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Scotland highlights the role of European travel in COVID-19 emergence | medRxiv | |||||||||||
Abstract
Abstract SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and spread rapidly throughout the world. Understanding the introductions of this new coronavirus in different settings may assist control efforts and the establishment of frameworks to support rapid response in future infectious disease outbreaks. We investigated the first four weeks of emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Scotland after the first case reported on the 1st March 2020. We obtained full genome sequences from 452 individuals with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, representing 20% of all cases until 1st April 2020 (n=2310). This permitted a genomic epidemiology approach to study the introductions and spread of the SARS-2 virus in Scotland. From combined phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis, we estimated at least 113 introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Scotland during this period. Clusters containing multiple sequences suggestive of onward transmission occurred in 48/86 (56%). 42/86 (51%) clusters had no known international travel history indicating undetected introductions. The majority of viral sequences were most closely related to those circulating in other European countries, including Italy, Austria and Spain. Travel-associated introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Scotland predated travel restrictions in the UK and other European countries. The first local transmission occurred three days after the first case. A shift from travel-associated to sustained community transmission was apparent after only 11 days. Undetected introductions occurred prior to the first known case of COVID-19. Earlier travel restrictions and quarantine measures might have resulted in fewer introductions into Scotland, thereby reducing the number of cases and the subsequent burden on health services. The high number of introductions and transmission rates were likely to have impacted on national contact tracing efforts. Our results also demonstrate that local real-time genomic epidemiology can be used to monitor transmission clusters and facilitate control efforts to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
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| WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of coronavirus: 'There's much unknown' | |||||||||||
... about how often people can spread the coronavirus when they do not have symptoms. ... But it may boil down to how one defines "asymptomatic." ... | |||||||||||
| Coronavirus Could Have Been in Wuhan in August 2019, According to Harvard Study | |||||||||||
A pre-print article published by Harvard University suggests that trends in hospital traffic and search engine data from the Chinese province of Wuhan in late Summer and early fall 2019 could be attributed to SARS-CoV-2.1
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that has caused the COVID-19 pandemic, was initially linked to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China in late November - early December 2019. However, the authors of the article highlight that there are a few disparities surrounding this. Firstly, research which linked two-thirds of the identified coronavirus cases to the Huanan Seafood Market failed to find a direct connection to the market for 14 of the cases including the first case. Subsequently, the door is left open as to the point of origin and infection. 2,3,4 Secondly, analysis of the wildlife in the Huanan market could not be linked to SARS-CoV-2, implying that transmission of the virus could have occurred downstream from the spill over event when a virus "spills over" from one species to another. 2,3,4 In the article, Nsoesie et al describe how these disparities led them to consider the idea that SARS-CoV-2 could actually have been circulating in Wuhan prior to its linking to the market. Previously, digital epidemiology and non-traditional data streams have proven valuable tools in respiratory disease surveillance, including internet search trends. As such, the researchers adopted this method to further explore a potential alternative origin of SARS-CoV-2. In the study, they adopted vehicle counts extracted from satellite imagery of hospital parking lots in Wuhan to estimate trends in hospital occupancy and explored this in association with reported illnesses linked to influenza. They also used Baidu search trends the Chinese technology company specializing in internet-related services to analyze the searches of disease related terms. Increased number of hospital visitsThe researchers collected 111 satellite images of Wuhan from January 9 2018 to April 30 2020. They found that, between 2018 and 2020, there was a general increasing trend of hospital occupancy as measured by the parking lot volume. A steep increase in numbers began in August 2019, which resulted in a peak in December 2019. Between September and October 2019, five of the six hospitals demonstrate their highest relative daily volume from the analyzed data series. Interestingly, this coincided with increased internet search queries for terms such as "diarrhea" and "cough". The authors note that the increased search for "diarrhea" is only detectable in late 2019, however "cough" illustrates yearly peaks that align with influenza season. This finding parallels the recent acknowledgement that gastrointestinal symptoms are, as the authors put it, "a unique feature of COVID-19 disease and may be the chief complaint of a significant proportion of presenting patients". Following the public health lockdown of Wuhan on January 23 2019, the authors found a large decrease in hospital volume and also search query data. This study is currently a preprint and so has not undergone peer-review. Using search engine data and satellite imagery of hospital traffic to detect disease outbreaks is an interesting idea with some validity. However, its important to remember that the data are only correlative and (as the authors admit) cannot identify the cause of the uptick. By focussing on hospitals in Wuhan, the acknowledged epicentre of the outbreak, the study forces the correlation. It would have been interesting (and possibly much more convincing) to have seen control analyses of other Chinese cities outside of the Hubei region. - Professor Paul Digard, Chair of Virology, University of Edinburgh. In the article the authors state: "While we cannot confirm if the increased volume was directly related to the new virus, our evidence supports other recent work showing that emergence happened before identification at the Huanan Seafood market. These findings also corroborate the hypothesis that the virus emerged naturally in southern China and was potentially already circulating at the time of the Wuhan cluster." They add: "In August, we identify a unique increase in searches for diarrhea which was neither seen in previous flu seasons or mirrored in the cough search data. While surprising, this finding lines up with the recent recognition that gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are a unique feature of COVID-19 disease and may be the chief complaint of a significant proportion of presenting patients." Considering the limitationsIt's important to note that analyzing search query data is tied with its own set of limitations. There is no indication of why the individual searched a specific term, and not all symptom searches are specifically linked to disease morbidity. In the article, the authors go on to say: "These data are also vulnerable to fluctuations related to events we might not be aware of and individual search behavior changes over time, which may result in spurious signals. Surveillance using web-query data depends on adequate Internet access and Internet penetration in China can be highly variable. However, by the end of 2017, the internet penetration rate was 70.7% in Wuhan which was 14.9% higher than the national average." To conclude the piece, the researchers state that further research is indeed required to validate the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, but that this study adds to the collection of work on the value of utilizing digital resources for monitoring disease outbreaks. References:
1. Nsoesie et al. Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates early disease activity in the Fall of 2019. Harvard University's DASH repository. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_preprint.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.
2. Lu et al. 2020. Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding. DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30251-8.
3. Benvenuto et al. 2020. The 2019-new coronavirus epidemic: Evidence for virus evolution. J Med Virol. DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25688 3.
4. Duchene et al. 2020. Temporal signal and the phylodynamic threshold of SARS-CoV-2. bioRxiv. DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.04.077735
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| Coronavirus may have been spreading in China in August: Harvard study | |||||||||||
Travellers line up with their belongings outside Hankou Railway Station after travel restrictions to leave Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province and Chinas epicentre of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, were lifted, April 8, 2020.
Aly Song | Reuters
Covid-19 may have been circulating in China as early as August 2019, a new study from Harvard Medical School (HMS) claims.
The virus, which is widely believed to have originated in a wildlife market in the Chinese city of Wuhan, was first reported to the WHO in late December.
However, an analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan indicates that there was early disease activity in the fall of 2019, according to HMS researchers.
In a study published on Monday on Harvard Universitys DASH server, analysts used satellite images of parking lots at six hospitals in Wuhan to calculate vehicle counts and estimate hospital occupancy trends. The vehicle numbers were compared to trends seen during other flu-like illness outbreaks.
The research paper which is not yet peer reviewed also analyzed data from Chinese search engine Baidu to determine changes in searches for the terms cough and diarrhea between April 2017 and May 2020.
It found that between 2018 and 2020 there was a general upward trend in hospital occupancy but there was a steep increase in occupancies from August 2019, which culminated with a peak in December 2019.
Five of the six hospitals included in the analysis showed their highest daily occupancies between September and October 2019, researchers found, which coincided with elevated levels of Baidu search queries for the terms diarrhea and cough.
Search volumes for both terms rose dramatically in the city around three weeks before its spike of confirmed Covid-19 cases in early 2020, the study said.
Increased hospital traffic and symptom search data in Wuhan preceded the documented start of the pandemic in December 2019, the studys authors said. While we cannot confirm if the increased volume was directly related to the new virus, our evidence supports other recent work showing that emergence happened before identification at the Huanan seafood market.
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WHO warns of Covid-19 risk as mass gatherings resume worldwide
The report authors argued that their findings supported theories that Covid-19 was already circulating before the outbreak in Wuhan was first documented, adding that the virus may have even spread internationally before Chinese authorities detected it in late 2019.
In August, we identify a unique increase in searches for diarrhea which was neither seen in previous flu seasons or mirrored in the cough search data, the research team said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lists both a cough and diarrhea as potential symptoms of Covid-19. The HMS research team described gastrointestinal symptoms as a unique feature of the virus and one that could be the primary complaint for a number of symptomatic patients.
This symptom search increase is then followed by a rise in hospital parking lot traffic in October and November, as well as a rise in searches for cough, the reports authors added. While we cannot conclude the reason for this increase, we hypothesize that broad community transmission may have led to more acute cases requiring medical attention, resulting in higher viral loads and worse symptoms.
The researchers noted that there had been some limitations in using satellite and Baidu search data, such as impaired visibility from poor weather, acquiring data from Chinese satellite companies and not knowing the intention of individual web searches.
China has faced criticism over its initial handling of the outbreak, which has included accusations that it withheld critical information from the WHO and delayed reporting the new strain of coronavirus to the organization.
In April, Wuhan authorities revised the citys death toll from Covid-19 up by 50% following a a city-wide investigation.
Although Chinese leader Xi Jinping has argued the country acted with transparency throughout the crisis, China is resisting complying with a WHO investigation into the global handling of the pandemic.
The Chinese ambassador to the U.K. told Sky News last month that China would allow an investigation into the outbreak but not now.
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| Coronavirus question: Can the virus be spread in lakes and rivers? - nj.com | |||||||||||
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NJ Advance Media has launched a daily coronavirus question, a service in which our reporters provide answers to commonly asked questions about the epidemic that has hit hard in New Jersey.
Todays coronavirus question is answered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Kay Bidle, a marine biologist, oceanographer and Rutgers professor.
Q: Can the coronavirus be spread in lakes and rivers?
A: Its still unknown. The proper operation and maintenance of pools, hot tubs, spas or water play areas, including their disinfection with chlorine and bromine, should inactivate the virus in those bodies of water, according to the CDC. But, lakes and rivers are as tricky to nail down as ocean water. According to Bidle, the virus may be harmed in salt waters and by high levels of light on sunny days, but can potentially be spread by even a modest wind.
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| Coronavirus question: Can the virus be spread in lakes and rivers? | |||||||||||
If I already had the coronavirus, am I now immune to it? ... Are antibody tests effective in evaluating your immunity to the virus? Is a second wave of the ... | |||||||||||
| Special Report: Before coronavirus, China bungled swine epidemic with secrecy | |||||||||||
(Reuters) - When the deadly virus was first discovered in China, authorities told the people in the know to keep quiet or else. Fearing reprisal from Beijing, local officials failed to order tests to confirm outbreaks and didnt properly warn the public as the pathogen spread death around the country.
All this happened long before Chinas coronavirus outbreak, which has claimed more than 3,000 lives worldwide in less than three months. For the past 19 months, secrecy has hobbled the nations response to African swine fever, an epidemic that has killed millions of pigs. A Reuters examination has found that swine fevers swift spread was made possible by Chinas systemic under-reporting of outbreaks. And even today, bureaucratic secrecy and perverse policy incentives continue undermining Chinese efforts to defeat one of the worst livestock epidemics in modern history.
Beijings secretive early handling of the coronavirus epidemic has troubling similarities to its missteps in containing African swine fever, but with the far higher stakes of a human infection. After the coronavirus was found in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, local and national officials were slow to sound the alarm and take actions disease experts say are needed to contain deadly outbreaks. Beijing continues to gag negative news and online postings about the disease, along with criticism of the governments response.
With swine fever, Beijing set a tone of furtiveness across government and industry by denying or downplaying the severity of a disease that the meat industry estimates has shrunk Chinas 440-million-hog herd by more than half. The epidemic has taken a quarter of the worlds hogs off the market, hurt livelihoods, caused meat prices to spike globally and pushed food inflation to an eight-year high.
Cover-ups across China - coupled with underfinancing of relief for devastated pig farmers and weak enforcement of restrictions on pork transport and slaughter - have enabled the spread of the livestock virus to the point where it now threatens pig farmers worldwide, according to veterinarians, industry analysts and hog producers. Since the China outbreak, African swine fever has broken out in 10 countries in Asia.
The vacuum of credible information has made it impossible for farmers, industry and government to tell how and why the disease spread so quickly, making preventive measures difficult, said Wayne Johnson, a Beijing-based veterinarian who runs Enable Ag-Tech Consulting.
To get it under control, you have to know where it is, Johnson said.
Chinas Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement to Reuters that it has repeatedly communicated to all regions the importance of timely and accurate reporting of African swine fever outbreaks and had zero tolerance for hiding and delaying the reporting of cases.
Interviews with farmers, industry analysts and major suppliers to Chinas pork sector indicate otherwise. More than a dozen Chinese farmers told Reuters they reported disease outbreaks to local authorities that never made it into Beijings official statistics. Those infections are going unreported to central authorities in part because counties lack the cash to follow a separate requirement from Beijing to compensate farmers for pigs killed to control the disease.
Local officials have also avoided reporting outbreaks out of fear of the political consequences. And they have routinely refused to test pigs for the virus when mass deaths are reported, according to interviews with farmers and executives at corporate producers.
A farmer surnamed Zhao, who raises a herd in Henan province, said local officials told him as much when they resisted recording the outbreak he reported on his farm, which wiped out his herd.
We havent had a single case of African swine fever. If I report it, we have a case, Zhao recalled an official telling him. The local officials could not be reached for comment and a fax seeking comment went unanswered.
When the coronavirus hit, Chinese authorities reacted with a push to reassure the public that all was well. The first reported death from the virus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, came on Jan. 9 - a 61-year-old man in Wuhan. In the following days, Chinese authorities said that the virus was under control and not widely transmissible.
The assurances came despite a lack of reliable data and testing capacity in Wuhan. Testing kits for the disease were not distributed to some of Wuhans hospitals until about Jan. 20, an official at the Hubei Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC) told Reuters. Before then, samples had to be sent to a laboratory in Beijing for testing, a process that took three to five days to get results, according to Wuhan health authorities.
During that gap, city hospitals reduced the number of people under medical observation from 739 to 82, according to data from Wuhan health authorities compiled by Reuters, and no new cases were reported inside China.
Chinas top leadership has dramatically ramped up the public-health response since its early missteps. Beijing built new hospitals in days to treat the sick and launched an unprecedented blockade of the disease epicenter on Jan. 23, first quarantining Wuhans 11 million residents at home, then suspending transport in all major cities of Hubei province, home to about 60 million people.
Still, the initial attempts to tightly control information left many people unaware of the risks and unable to take precautions that might have prevented infection - and the suppressing of news and commentary continues today. Wuhan authorities reprimanded eight people they accused of spreading illegal and false information about the disease. One of them, 34-year-old doctor Li Wenliang, later died from coronavirus, triggering an angry backlash on social media.
Some critical posts were allowed during a brief and unusual period of online openness in late January. But Beijings censors - the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) - have since cracked down on posts about Li and other information that authorities deem negative, according to CAC censorship orders sent to online news outlets and seen by Reuters. One CAC notice ordered online outlets to guard against harmful information. Another ordered them not to push any negative story.
The CAC did not respond to a request for comment sent by fax.
UNREPORTED OUTBREAKS
Beijing had years to prepare for African swine fever. Veterinarians have frequently warned Chinese authorities of the risks since the disease started spreading through the Caucasus region in 2007.
Pigs infected by the virus initially suffer high fever, loss of appetite and diarrhea. Then their skin turns red as internal hemorrhaging starts and their organs swell, leading to death in as little as a week.
With no vaccine or cure available for the disease, experts recommend that infected pigs and others housed in the same barn are culled, with the carcasses either burned or buried to prevent further infection. Farms, equipment and vehicles that could be contaminated need to be thoroughly cleaned and disinfected.
The first case in China was discovered on Aug. 1, 2018, on a farm near Shenyang, in the northeastern province of Liaoning. Just two weeks later, the virus was found more than 1,000 kilometers to the south in pigs bought by the countrys top pork processor, WH Group(0288.HK), from another northeastern province, Heilongjiang. It took Beijing another two weeks to block pig exports from the whole region, and that and other transport restrictions were poorly enforced, said Johnson and other industry experts. WH Group declined to comment.
One factor behind the epidemic: Chinese consumers prefer fresh pork - straight from the slaughterhouse, rather than chilled. This means hundreds of thousands of live pigs are moved long distances every day to supply processors in major cities. That mass movement spread the disease relentlessly.
Over the first four months of the outbreak, Beijing reported swine-fever cases almost daily as the virus spread from the northeast down through central China, west into Sichuan, and to the huge province of Guangdong by year-end. Veterinarians believe the virus spread quickly because it can survive for weeks on dirty farm equipment or livestock trucks.
And yet gaps in counting and tracking the pig disease have been routine across China. Reuters found a striking absence of reported outbreaks in some of the nations most productive pork regions.
For instance, almost none of the reported outbreaks have come from the major hog-raising provinces of Hebei, Shandong and Henan. The three contiguous northern provinces were the source of some 20% of the 700 million pigs China slaughtered in 2017. Many came from backyard farms, which make up a large part of Chinas industry and have proven fertile breeding grounds for the disease. Yet each of the three provinces has reported just a single case of African swine fever, despite widespread anecdotal reports of outbreaks there that industry sources believe killed millions of pigs.
Neither Shandong nor Henan authorities responded to requests for comment. Hebeis department of agriculture said it had strictly reported and verified the epidemic and that the disease situation was currently stable.
Six Henan farmers told Reuters they reported outbreaks during late 2018 and the first half of 2019. In some cases, local authorities helped deal with dead pigs, they said, but never tested for the virus.
Thats what happened when Wang Shuxi, a farmer in Henans Gushi County, lost more than 400 pigs in March 2019. Wang said he had no doubt that his pigs had African swine fever, even though authorities never tested them - and he couldnt test them himself, because Beijing did not permit the commercial sale of disease test kits at the time.
His pigs showed telltale symptoms of the disease.
The whole body went red, he said. He injected the animals with an anti-fever medication to no avail. At the start, they didnt eat, and even after injections, it kept returning, he said. If you cant cure it, you know its swine fever.
Provincial and county governments had strong incentives to avoid verifying and reporting outbreaks because of Beijings rules on compensating farmers, said Huang Yanzhong, specialist in health governance with the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
Under an African swine fever contingency plan drawn up in 2015, Beijing ordered the culling of all pigs on farms where the disease is found and on every farm within a three-kilometer radius. The central government raised compensation from 800 yuan ($115) to 1,200 yuan for every pig culled in 2018. Beijing typically promised to provide between 40% and 80% of the money, depending on the province. Localities would fund the rest.
In April 2019, the national agriculture ministry said the central government had allocated 630 million yuan to cull 1.01 million pigs to contain the disease. But that money either wasnt sufficient or regularly did not get paid out, farmers told Reuters. None of about a dozen farmers who told Reuters they tried to report outbreaks said they had received the promised 1,200 yuan for each pig.
Many got nothing. Wang, the Gushi County farmer, said that almost a year after his pigs died, he has received no recompense. Gushi County officials could not be reached for comment.
Many farmers, eager to salvage value from their herds, have resorted to sending their pigs to slaughter at the first sign of illness - thereby thrusting the virus into the human food supply. The swine fever virus does not threaten people. But its presence in meat - where it can survive for weeks - creates a cycle of infection because many backyard farmers feed pigs with restaurant scraps that include pork.
Garbage feeding caused 23 outbreaks in 2018, Huang Baoxu, deputy director of the China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, told reporters at a briefing in November that year. His remarks were a rare instance where the central government revealed findings about the spread of the hog virus. The center declined to comment for this story.
Farmers visiting slaughterhouses dealing in sick pigs also likely picked up the virus on their trucks or equipment, spreading it back to their farms, Johnson said.
In the southern province of Guangxi, the disease raged through the spring of 2019 and early summer, several farmers told Reuters last year. Bobai County was hit hard.
A Bobai farmer surnamed Huang said she lost almost 500 pigs during April and May. She said she tried to report the diseased pigs to the local government but was ignored. The official she spoke to by phone never came to her farm. He told Huang that her pigs could not be saved - but that they didnt have African swine fever. His advice, she said: hurry and sell the pigs while they could be sold.
Huang said she sold more than 30 pigs that she believed had the virus. They looked healthy when she sold them, she said. Others sold obviously sick pigs at very low prices. Traders took all the pigs, including the sick ones - as long as they could walk to the trucks, she said.
Huang buried her dead pigs daily for weeks on a relatives land. Others simply dumped their dead pigs on the roadside or in the mountains, she said. The government provided no help.
Eventually, in late May, Bobai County reported one pig dead from the disease, official statistics show.
Authorities in Guangxi did not respond to a request for comment, and officials in Bobai countys agriculture bureau could not be reached.
Beijings agriculture ministry said in a statement that it had issued an August 2019 order requiring punishments in situations where localities failed to report outbreaks. The ministry said it meted out unspecified discipline to more than 600 local personnel for what it called failures to manage the disease that were uncovered in its investigations of problem areas.
The practice of processing infected hogs has persisted despite new rules from Beijing in July that required slaughterhouses to test all batches of pigs for the virus. The agriculture ministry said in January that 5% of the more than 2,000 samples taken from slaughterhouses in November tested positive for the disease.
An Australian study in September found 48% of meat products confiscated from Asian travelers arriving at its ports and airports contained the virus.
It showed theres an awful lot of unrevealed infection not being reported to the authorities, said Trevor Drew, director of the Australian Animal Health Laboratory.
One such information gap is at the top of the industry - Chinas large corporate pig producers. They have also been hit hard by the disease, despite taking more extensive measures than backyard farms to disinfect trucks and require workers to change clothes and shower before and after shifts.
None of Chinas top publicly traded producers have publicly announced any swine fever outbreak, but executives of major hog producers acknowledged in interviews with Reuters that their herds were hit by the disease.
Thai conglomerate C.P. Pokphand(0043.HK) , one of Chinas leading pig producers, has had swine-fever outbreaks on farms in Liaoning, Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu provinces, Bai Shanlin, chief executive of China operations, told Reuters in a rare admission by a listed firm. Executives at three other listed companies, also among Chinas top pig producers, acknowledged outbreaks at several farms but declined to be identified.
None of the outbreaks that these large companies have confirmed to Reuters were reported by Beijing, according to a Reuters review of the agriculture ministrys data on outbreaks.
By August 2019, a year after the first case was found in China, pork prices had passed a record set back in 2016. And they were still climbing rapidly. With a crucial national celebration approaching in October - the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic - Chinas top leaders took note. Pork is a staple of Chinese cuisine, and rising meat production has been among the many signature achievements in the Communist Partys decades-long drive to bring prosperity to China.
In a video conference that month with officials from all 34 provinces and regions, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua issued a warning: Sufficient pork was vital to peoples lives and the countrys stability. He called for the urgent recovery of the herd as a key political task.
A raft of new production policies and incentives emerged from Beijing. And as the provinces rallied to replenish the nations herd, reports of African swine fever grew even more rare. Disease outbreaks reported by the agriculture ministry have tailed off since August. In January, Agriculture Minister Han Changfu said the situation has stabilized.
The governments statistics are rife with contradictions, however. The ministry has reported 163 outbreaks of African swine fever since August 2018 and said 1.19 million pigs have been culled, a fraction of 1% of Chinas total herd. Separate ministry data tracking the herd monthly show that, by September 2019, the herd had shrunk by 41% from the prior year.
These official estimates of the decline are far too low, three major industry suppliers told Reuters.
Its at least 60%, said Johan de Schepper, managing director of Dutch feed ingredients firm Agrifirm International. His assessment, based on sales to about 100 large pig producers, echoed those of others in the industry.
The virus is still killing pigs nationwide and the herd may still be shrinking, say farmers and industry suppliers. Half of the herd was gone before this winter, and I think half of the rest will be gone by the end of the season, said Johnson, the veterinarian, citing conversations with clients from across China.
The problem: Some areas were hit with a second wave of the disease.
Henan province is among them, farmers told Reuters. Last year, about 60% of Henans herd was wiped out, mainly in the densely farmed areas in the south and west of the province, analysts at Guotai Junan Securities wrote in an internal memo seen by Reuters. Recently, the memo noted, the virus has moved through east Henan, taking out another 20%.
The vicious disease ruined Zhao, the farmer in central Chinas Henan province. The virus struck in October, causing high fever, internal bleeding, vomiting and diarrhea in his pigs. Just two survived. The other 196 died in a week.
When Zhao tried to report the outbreak to the county veterinary authority, he said, officials strongly encouraged him to keep quiet. A local official reminded him of the national mandate to cull all pigs within three kilometers of an infected farm. That could spell disaster for his neighbors if Zhao spoke up.
If its found to be African swine fever, people nearby will have to stop raising pigs, Zhao recalled a local official telling him. Zhao decided against filing a report to protect his neighbors, he told Reuters on a recent visit to his farm.
Further up the political hierarchy, the deputy governor of Henan province was quoted by the provincial agriculture bureau as saying in December that Henan had been free of the disease for 14 months, after a single reported case in September 2018. The provincial government did not respond to requests for comment.
The disinformation game continues. Zhao says that when county officials came by his farm in January, they recorded that he still had 180 pigs. In fact, he said, he had just the two hogs that survived the October outbreak.
The country is being kept in the dark, he said.
Reporting by Dominique Patton; Additional reporting from the Beijing newsroom; Editing by Brian Thevenot
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| WHO says Covid transmission through asymptomatic patients 'very rare', experts disagree | |||||||||||
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New Delhi: It is very rare for an asymptomatic person with Covid-19 to infect another person, a top World Health Organization (WHO) official said during a press briefing Monday, adding that following symptomatic patients alone can drastically reduce the spread of the disease.
Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical lead for Covid-19, said data from a number of countries show transmission of the infection through asymptomatic people those who have the infection but show no symptoms is rare.
We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing. Theyre following asymptomatic cases, theyre following contacts, and theyre not finding secondary transmission, Van Kerkhove said during the online briefing. It still appears to be rare that an asymptomatic individual actually transmits onward.
However, she added that much of this information is not published in scientific literature.
Van Kerkhove said the focus should remain on following symptomatic cases. If we followed all of the symptomatic cases, isolated those cases, follow the contact and quarantine those contacts, we would drastically reduce transmission.
The WHO statement, however, invited criticism from experts all over the world who said it was confusing and not backed by enough evidence.
Andrew M. Slavitt, a health expert from the US, called the statement irresponsible.
Posting a thread on microblogging site Twitter, Harvard Global Health Institutes Ashish K. Jha explained why the comment was confusing, and said such statements should be accompanied by adequate data.
From existing data, both pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic people are important factors to consider while attempting to contain the disease, Jha said. Pre-symptomatic people are those who do not show symptoms but may develop them a few days after testing positive.
Also read: Researchers see weekly fluctuation in Covid infection & death rates, but cant explain reason
WHO experts clarification
After the press briefing ignited a debate, Van Kerkhove tweeted saying WHO has published a summary of Covid-19 transmission, which includes a breakdown of transmission through symptomatic, pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. She noted in her tweets that there is a need to distinguish between pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic people.
The WHO document, published on 5 June, states, Viable virus has been isolated from specimens of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, suggesting, therefore, that people who do not have symptoms may be able transmit the virus to others.
The document also adds that there is the possibility of transmission from pre-symptomatic people.
A systematic review of literature from last month claimed the proportion of asymptomatic individuals ranged from 4 to 41 per cent.
The WHO has quoted several published studies in its document, one of which found that among 63 asymptomatic patients studied in China, only nine individuals (14 per cent) infected others. In another study, the researchers found no secondary transmission in 9 out of 91 asymptomatic cases while a third study found 6.4 per cent of cases were transmitted by pre-symptomatic cases.
Comprehensive studies on transmission from asymptomatic individuals are difficult to conduct, but the available evidence from contact tracing reported by Member States suggests that asymptomatically-infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms, the document adds.
A case of poor communication on part of WHO
Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, pointed out that it is difficult to determine at the time of contact whether the person is in the pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic stage. To find any meaningful data on the magnitude of transmission, one would need contact-tracing, culture of the virus and genomic sequence to define its route.
Shahid Jameel, virologist and chief executive of Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance, told ThePrint that it is a case of poor communication on WHOs part.
The distinction between pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic was not clear in Kerkhoves statement and doesnt correspond with the existing evidence on the spread of the pandemic, Jameel said.
If the transmission was predominantly spread by symptomatic patients, it doesnt explain the spread of the outbreak that has infected 7 million and caused over 400,000 deaths globally as compared to SARS outbreak that was spread during the symptomatic phase but only infected 8,000 and killed about 700 people worldwide, suggested Jameel.
It could be that the asymptomatic people are shedding lower levels of virus than symptomatic people, but to say that asymptomatic patients are less likely to transmit the disease is sending the wrong signal.
It will send a wrong signal to people who will start flocking to malls, restaurants, religious places especially in a country like India where cases are still rising, Jameel said.
There is evidence that pre-symptomatic infections spread the disease according to a study in Wuhan as much as 44 per cent of cases of secondary infections were spread by cases in their pre-symptomatic stage.
In India, 28 per cent of those tested for Covid-19 till 30 April were asymptomatic. However, the government does not know how 44 per cent of those who tested positive were infected, according to a study published in Indian Journal of Medical Research on 30 May.
Kolkata-based epidemiologist and public health specialist Aritra Das told ThePrint that it is difficult to prove the source of an infection at this stage of the pandemic with high number of cases and limited surveillance in the absence of genetic studies, especially in India.
I am only worried that it will make us complacent at individual and administrative level that may further increase the slope of the epidemic curve, said Das.
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| 8:12 AM 6/9/2020 - M.N.: Any #Analysis is just as good as the #Analyst who performs it, whatever the sources. Any Intel Agency is only as good as its culture and its workforce. There is something deeply wrong with the US Intel. Analyse it in depth! Analytic Reflection... https://www. | |||||||||||
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M.N.: Any #Analysis is just as good as the #Analyst who performs it, whatever the sources. Any Intel Agency is only as good as its culture and its workforce. There is something deeply wrong with the US Intel. Analyse it in depth! Analytic Reflection... https://www. "This is a strategic moment. The requirement to telework induced by COVID-19 can help the IC overcome an entrenched identity that has held back a much-needed, community-wide cultural shift. In the long-term, a more competitive IC will embrace new workforce, tradecraft, and classification norms and be stronger for it."
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| 7:52 PM 6/8/2020 - Coronavirus may force the U.S. intelligence community to rethink how it does its job | |||||||||||
 Coronavirus may force the U.S. intelligence community to rethink how it does its job https://covid-19-review.blogspot.com/2020/06/752-pm-682020-coronavirus-may-force-us.html Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks | InBrief | - -
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| COVID-19 virus has properties that have never been found in nature before, Opinions & Blogs News | |||||||||||
Norwegian and British vaccine scientists have published unequivocal evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is man-made.
The authors state two conclusions: (1) the mutations that would normally be seen in the course of animal to human transmission have not occurred in SARS-CoV-2, indicating that it was fully pre-adapted for human infection and (2) SARS-CoV-2 has insertions in its protein sequence that have never been detected in nature and contribute to its infectivity and pathogenicity.
That is, SARS-CoV-2 has a receptor binding domain specifically designed for the human angiotensin converting enzyme-2 receptor (ACE2) found in lungs, kidneys, intestines and blood vessels.
In addition, SARS-CoV-2 has a furin polybasic cleavage site not found in any closely-related bat coronaviruses as well as other artificially inserted charged amino acids that enhance the virus ability to bind to and enter human cells by forming salt bridges between the virus and the cell surface.
Those modifications are key to understanding the unique transmissibility and potency of SARS-CoV-2.
The authors explain that the COVID-19 pandemic is revealing neurological, haematological and immunological pathogenicity, which cannot be explained by infectivity via the ACE2 receptor alone.
There have been wide-ranging clinical observations such as a loss of taste and smell, sore throat, dry cough, headache and severe gastrointestinal pain with diarrhoea.
SARS-CoV-2 binding to the bitter/sweet receptors in the upper respiratory tract provides a perfect location for transmission by coughing.
According to the authors, oral and upper respiratory infection can lead to transmission to the lower respiratory tract, gastrointestinal effects and a cascade of inflammation-producing immunological responses.
The wide-spread systemic release of the virus, due to its co-receptor enhancement, could explain the multiple clinical findings on the cardiovascular system, immunological T-cells, cells associated with neuropathological conditions and, finally, the severe hypoxia seen in advanced cases of the disease.
As the authors correctly note, the development of an effective vaccine cannot be accomplished without an objective analysis of the structure of SARS-CoV-2, its mode of action and its origin.
That effort has been hampered by Chinas refusal to fully disclose the information it possesses, in conjunction with a politically-motivated scientific misinformation campaign by Beijing to avoid responsibility, by some Western scientists with a vested interest in the outcome and by an uninformed and servile media.
That includes the editorial decisions of scientific and medical journals, which seem to favour, overwhelmingly, the narrative that the COVID-19 pandemic is just another naturally-occurring outbreak, even to the extent of censoring opposing views.
Until now, the cover-up of the true origin of the COVID-19 pandemic has been successful.
No less than the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in the United States has blindly accepted the scientific conventional wisdom promoted by the Chinese Communist Party, issuing the following April 30, 2020 statement:
The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
Remarkedly, there has never been conclusive scientific evidence to support that claim, yet many appear content endorsing the naturally-occurring narrative, mostly out of ignorance or an unwillingness to accept the ugly truth.
That ugly truth is - China manufactured SARS-CoV-2 and, through a combination of hubris, incompetence and recklessness, unleashed it on the world.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)
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| U.S. Navy test shows 60% of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies | |||||||||||
Key Points
In this handout released by the U.S. Navy, The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) leaves its San Diego homeport Jan. 17, 2020.
US Navy | Getty Images
A U.S. Navy investigation into the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier has found that about 60% of sailors tested had antibodies for the virus, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, suggesting a far higher infection rate than previously known.
In April, the Navy and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started conducting serology tests to look for the presence of specific antibodies that are created by the immune systems attack response to the presence of the virus and remain in the blood for a period of time.
More than 1,100 aboard tested positive for the virus as of April, less than 25% of the crew.
The spread of the virus on the ship put into motion a series of events that led to the captain of the ship being relieved of his command after the leak of a letter he wrote calling on the Navy for stronger measures to protect the crew.
One sailor from the ship died from the coronavirus and several others were hospitalized. But broadly, sailors, who are generally healthier and younger, fared better than the general population and most showed no symptoms whatsoever.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that about 400 volunteers participated in the serology tests, lower than the 1,000 volunteers that were sought, but enough to provide statistically relevant data about how the virus spread aboard one of worlds largest warships.
The Roosevelt has about 4,800 personnel on the ship.
The officials said a formal announcement was expected as early as Tuesday.
The Navy declined to comment.
The serology test results appear to track closely with data from the Roosevelt in early April, which showed that 60 percent of the sailors who were testing positive for the virus itself not antibodies were in fact symptom-free.
Medical groups, such as the American Medical Association, have warned that serology tests can lead to false positives.
The CDC has said that definitive data is lacking on whether individuals with antibodies are protected against reinfection from the coronavirus.
In addition to the serology tests, volunteers were also swabbed again for Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, as well as asked to answer a short survey.
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| Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies | |||||||||||
Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier - GS ___________________________________________________________________ https://covid-19-review.blogspot.com/2020/06/michael-novakhov-sharednewslinks-us.html ________________________________________________________________ Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks | InBrief | - -
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| U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies | National Post | |||||||||||
WASHINGTON A U.S. Navy investigation into the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier has found that about 60 percent of sailors tested had antibodies for the coronavirus, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, suggesting a far higher infection rate than previously known.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that about 400 volunteers participated in the serology tests, lower than the 1,000 volunteers that were sought. (Reporting by Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart; editing by Grant McCool)
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| Analytic Reflection: Measuring the Attributes of Open and All-Source Intelligence Homeland Security Today | |||||||||||
(U) On the analytic lines of the ICA, the Committee concludes that allanalytic lines are supported with all-source intelligence, although with varying substantiation. The Committee did not discover any significant analytic tradecraft issues in the preparation or final presentation of the ICA.(U) The Committee found that specific intelligence as well as open source assessments support the assessmentVolume IV: Review of Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Since the COVID-19 pandemic has forced some members of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) to change the nature of their work into a more open environment, it is an opportune time to not only learn how to operate therein, but better determine the true attributes of open source information in a more reflective manner. This valuable exercise could directly meet a suggestion posed in the 2007 Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress titled Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Issues for Congress, and mimic the same progression that occurs across every other type of intelligence to this day.
There are some that believe that open source information, a key and expanding source of intelligence used significantly by its officers for decades, is now the preeminent type of information we should exclusively gravitate toward as professionals. It is not and should be carefully tested instead as an integral piece on a larger chessboard. Open source is easily the most voluminous and accessible type of information available, but it is also becoming the most corruptible and misleading as a result.
Simultaneously, all-source intelligence of which open source is a component and the appropriate (evolutionary) application of analytic tradecraft therein, seems more significant now than ever before. This importance was explicitly reinforced this year in the fourth U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report in the committees bipartisan Russia 2016 presidential election interference investigation, and is referenced throughout this article.
Whats in a Source? An Analytic Review
All-source analysis is the fusion of multiple sources of intelligence, each serving as a form of evidence, used to build a claim reached by a process of reasoning. Analysts will often use different types of intelligence to test a hypothesis for weaknesses, knowing full well their conclusions are rarely flawless, and their sources perfectly reliable. Good all-source intelligence analysts fundamentally realize the strengths and weaknesses of each of their collected sources of information, or intelligence. Every -INT has them, which is why all-source analysis is so imperative.
For example, human intelligence (HUMINT) can be used to gain an individual leaders hidden intent, but suffers from questions of asset motivation and access; signals intelligence (SIGINT) can be used to gain targeted, clandestinely obtained conversations, but suffers from translation and contextual discrepancies; measurement and signature intelligence (MASINT) can be used to gain scientific evidence of a specific activity, but suffers from noise and platform limitations. In each case, there are methods our adversaries use to deceive our collection systems and effect confidence in our assessments. Those methods can be neutralized or mitigated through the secretive penetration of our adversaries network using multiple collection techniques.
(U) The analytic line on new normal serves as both prediction and warning, and the Committee notes that IC and open source reporting has revealed much evidence to reinforce the ICs 2016 assessments.Volume IV: Review of Intelligence Community Assessment, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Open source information, and its exclusive use, embodies a true juxtaposition therein. Public sources and social feeds are becoming easier to access, expansive in volume, and better tagged for discovery. They also serve as timely information sources that allow more rapid response to a diversity of requirements. This is incredibly valuable in areas where there are gaps in collection feeds from other platforms and serves as a signal to quickly modify priorities. Some are even gaining their own sub-categories as types of intelligence, including financial, cultural, economic, and most recently, health information. More importantly, open source intelligence (OSINT) appropriately collected and exploited from public sources can be used to gain a variety of digital material but often suffers from our initial inability to determine the true originator of the data, and the purpose of its dissemination.
As weve observed, many forms are easy to manipulate and aggregate to the masses with a mere touch of a button. Chinas recent COVID-19 misinformation campaign, and the Russians infamous use of Twitter bots to meet their strategic objectives leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, are modern examples. The 2016 the Cambridge Analytica scandal further cements the notion that accessible big data is easy to influence and weaponize against large targets. In 2019, it was uncovered that academic journals in Russia are retracting more than 800 papers following a probe into unethical publication practices. Trusting the information is not a simple task, which is why incorporating corroborating information using different types is so important. Distinguishing between accurate sources of public information and manipulated ones is very challenging. This exacerbates the intelligence ecosystem with an influx of more bad information than good.
Revisiting the CRS Report titled Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Issues for Congress
One of the recommendations in the keystone 2007 CRS Open Source Report included a request for an alternative analysis of a specified topic solely based on open sources in order to compare it with all-source analysis. Unfortunately for most, the pandemic crisis creates an incredible opportunity for the U.S. intelligence community to execute this exact recommendation in a more comprehensive manner.
U.S. intelligence officers are currently mobilized to support operations while teleworking, and on shifts in their standard secure analytic environment. The significant increase in open source analysis in the near term is creating a perfect opportunity to test it independently as a standalone analytic product, and/or as a component of all-source intelligence, and compare the two. Intelligence Community Directive 203, describing the U.S. ICs Analytic Tradecraft Standards, explicitly references the significance of incorporating analysis of alternatives in a systemic manner. This is clearly a unique way to execute that guidance. Are the conclusions and confidence levels similar or different, and what are the underlying reasons for any differences?
Several analytic organizations within the U.S. intelligence community have already learned to operate at the unclassified level, including the Department of Homeland Securitys Office of Intelligence and Analysis, the Defense Intelligence Agencys National Center for Medical Intelligence, and the State Departments Bureau of Intelligence and Research, as well as the Intelligence Branch division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Based on quantitative metrics I applied at the National Intelligence University, it is clear that the incorporation of open source information in agency and community-wide analytic products is significant, and has been for years. It is embraced as a valuable source of information, and a peer to its well-known intelligence equivalents.
(U) Open source collection is a long-standing discipline for CIA and other elements of the IC, and open source reporting is used throughout the ICA to support specific analytic assertions.Volume IV: Review of Intelligence Community Assessment, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
As a result, some, but not all agencies have evaluated the strengths and weaknesses therein. Additionally, many formalize complementary classified products buttressed by intelligence sources with equal or greater analytic fidelity to serve a variety of customers and improve confidence in their final claim. No example better exemplifies this trend than the well-publicized National Intelligence Council 2017 unclassified and classified Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) summarizing intelligence concerning the 2016 election.
(U) The Committee found that the ICA provided a range of all-source reporting to support these assessments.Volume IV: Review of Intelligence Community Assessment, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Regardless, open source information like other -INTs must be handled and managed carefully by the U.S. intelligence community to enforce the right protocols for its use, and to uphold legal standards for oversight and accountability, something far less observable in private institutions.
Learning from Post-Cold War Intelligence and Avoiding Source Exclusivity
Following the end of the Cold War and based on a perceived change in the threat environment, there was a reduction in resources for HUMINT operators, resulting in fewer agents and stations. Ironically, the Central Intelligence Agency almost lost their open source capabilities the Foreign Broadcast Information Services (FBIS) when Congress cut the budgets of most IC organizations. With less HUMINT reporting, the IC inherently relied more on other sources of intelligence to maintain situational awareness and produce finished intelligence for its customers.
In this case, SIGINT according to the 2002 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on Counterterrorism Intelligence Capabilities and Performance Prior to 9-11 report in combination with imagery intelligence (IMINT) made up a preponderance of intelligence fused into analytic products. The result, following the intelligence failure leading up to the catastrophic events of 9-11, included a recommendation ensuring better global coverage capability for clandestine human intelligence collection and analysis. Albeit a small sample, examples like this serve as an important warning about source exclusivity, and the dangers therein. History is rife with them. Compare todays collection to the U.S. SIGINT coverage during the 1950s, which was considered so poor that the period was referred to as the dark ages for communications intelligence.
In Conclusion Credibility and Feedback as a Key
The credibility of an analyst will forever be compromised when they realize incorporated information in finished intelligence is deemed false later, despite other sources available that invalidate one sources integrity. The Intelligence Community still treats Curveball as an unholy term, and learned a painful but vital lesson from his duplicitous exposure during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Ultimately, the United Nations weapons inspectors proved to have the most accurate source of information regarding Iraqs alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction program. Ethos, or character appeal, still serves as an important type of appeal in finished intelligence, and must be maintained to ethically persuade an audience.
The U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligences bipartisan Russian election interference investigation culminated into something the U.S. intelligence community craves most from their customers feedback. In this case, the committee evaluated a finished intelligence product along the lines of analytic tradecraft and integrity, and provided objective conclusions detailing the importance and application of open source and all-source intelligence. In combination with the request for alternative analysis found in the 2007 CRS OSINT report, and challenges we face during the pandemic crisis, the IC now has a clearer pathway to improve their performance in a more reflective way.
The author would like to thank Michael David, Ph.D., Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army (Retired), and R. Carter Morris, Ph.D. for timely and insightful information related this article.
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Dr. Brian Holmes is the Dean of the School of Science and Technology Intelligence at the National Intelligence University in Bethesda, Md. Dr. Holmes served as an all-source intelligence analyst and Branch Chief in the Defense Intelligence Agencies (DIA) Counterproliferation Support Office from 2006-2010 before accepting a managerial position in the Directorate for Analysis Staff Operations Division. He was a Direct Commission intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve, serving from 2007-2011 and reached the rank of Lieutenant (O-3). For three years he supported the Afghanistan-Pakistan Task Force as an all-source intelligence analyst in DIAs Directorate for Intelligence (J2). From 2012-2016, Dr. Holmes chaired the Emerging and Disruptive Technology, Geostrategic Resources and Environment, and Weapons of Mass Destruction concentrations in the School. He serves as an executive representative to the Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee (STIC) under the auspices of the National Intelligence Council, and directly supports Intelligence Community Directive 204 (National Intelligence Priorities Framework). He primarily focuses his research on dual use technologies, and the translation of emerging research and development into advanced materials for military systems. From 2016-2017, Dr. Holmes served as the Associate Dean of the School of Science and Technology Intelligence.
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| FBI seeks terror links in attack on cops | |||||||||||
The 62nd Precinct Police Station on Bath Avenue. Photo: Lore Croghan/Brooklyn Eagle
FBI seeks terror links in attack on cops
The FBI has joined the investigation into the ambush on a police officer with a knife in Brooklyn last week. The officer was on an anti-looting patrol Wednesday in Flatbush when a man walked up behind him and stabbed him in the neck, police said, setting off a struggle in which the assailant was critically shot and two other police officers were wounded. The FBI is looking into a possible terror connection to the ambush, according to Fox 5.
Brooklyn heavy metal club raises $125K
The Brooklyn heavy metal venue Saint Vitus recently started a Kickstarter campaign with the title Saint Vitus Stays Home: Help beloved Brooklyn venue and metal bar Saint Vitus survive the COVID-19 closure. The club also listed donors rewards, including signed photos, drum lessons and free shows. The campaigns goal was set at $15,000, and by June 5, Saint Vitus had raised nearly 10 times that, at more than $125,000, according to Rolling Stone.
CC Sabathia took part In Cadman Plaza memorial
Former New York Yankees All-Star CC Sabathia recently tweeted from Cadman Plaza, where he was with his family at the large memorial ceremony for George Floyd. His four children were wearing I Cant Breathe shirts and carrying Black Lives Matter posters, according to Fansider.
Driver tries to plow into Crown Heights protesters
A driver tried to plow into a group of peaceful protesters in Crown Heights on Saturday night. The incident took place at St. Johns Place and Brooklyn Avenue. Video taken at the scene shows the vehicle going up onto the sidewalk and almost hitting several bicyclists. One man climbed onto the roof of the SUV and tried to get the driver to stop, according to ABC7.
Brooklyn court officer accused of posting lynching images
A court officer who was most recently assigned to Brooklyn Criminal Court has been suspended and is being investigated for allegedly posting images on her Facebook account that depict Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton being lynched. The court officer, Sgt. Terri Pinto Napolitano, was referred to the state court systems inspector general over the post, which shows doctored images of Obama and Hillary. One post shows Obama hanging from a rope, with the words, Your day is coming, traitor! The other appears to show Clinton being walked to the gallows with the words Its not over till the fat lady swings, according to the New York Post.
Renderings unveiled for Bushwick apartment house
Renderings from Bricolage Architecture and Design reveal an upcoming mixed-use building at 132 Wyckoff Ave. in Bushwick. The building, developed by Santino Battista and Zaleski Properties, is slated to be four stories tall and include residences, retail stores, a community facility and an enclosed parking lot. The building, to be called The Residences at Wyckoff Gardens, will include 24 rental apartments, some with private balconies. A supermarket is expected to be one of the ground-floor retail tenants, according to New York YIMBY.
Famous deli says goodbye to Sheepshead Bay
After 28 years, Jay and Lloyds Kosher Deli and Family Restaurant on Avenue U has closed. Co-owners Jay Stern and Lloyd Lederman have known each other since they were children in Mill Basin. They opened their deli in 1993, when the area was predominantly Jewish but lacked its own kosher deli. Their recipes were passed down to Lederman from his father and grandfather, according to the Brooklyn Paper.
Orthodox Jews march for George Floyd
More than 200 members of Brooklyns Orthodox Jewish Community marched in Midwood on Sunday, shouting No justice, no peace and holding Black Lives Matter signs. Being here today is not a choice, said Assemblymember Dov Hikind. We have an obligation to speak up when theres injustice. One marcher held up a sign quoting the Torah. It read, You shall not stand aside when your fellows blood is shed, according to the New York Post.
Cops release video showing looting at Brooklyn Macys
Police on Sunday released a surveillance video taken on May 31 showing a pair of looters smashing display cases at the Brooklyn Macys before stealing $29,000 in jewelry. The two looters, who are also suspects in the robbery of a CVS in Manhattan earlier in the day, forced open a side entrance at the Fulton Street store and used a hammer to break the glass, according to the New York Post.
Diamonds are forever? Not if he had his way.
Police have charged a Brooklyn protester with making terroristic threats after he allegedly suggested in a Fox News interview that Manhattans Diamond District should be sent on fire. The man, who gave his name as Ace Burns, allegedly made the threats outside Barclays Center during recent protests. The NYPD tweeted Saturday night that they had identified the man and had taken him in for questioning.
Renderings revealed for Crown Heights seven-story residential building
Recently, IMC Architecture revealed its final renderings of a new seven-story residential building in Crown Heights. The buildings address would be 550 Prospect Place near the northern tip of Prospect Park. It is slated to include 41 rental apartments, a communal lounge, a business center, a roof terrace and a parking area for 98 vehicles. The building will have a brick exterior with ceiling-to-floor windows. Developer Steven Hurwitz is behind the project, according to New York YIMBY.
Williams leads protest after curfew
Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, a former Brooklyn councilmember, spoke to a peaceful crowd outside Barclays Center on Saturday evening. At 8:30 p.m., a half hour after the curfew, he led the crowd into the street, stopping traffic. Protesters knelt silently for 8 minutes and 46 minutes, the same amount of time George Floyd struggled to breathe. Williams said he believed in Dr. Martin Luther Kings nonviolent approach, but he added that Dr. King was also a disrupter, according to PIX11.
10-year-old girl struck by SUV
A 10-year-old girl is in critical condition after being struck by an SUV in Canarsie. The girl was hit at around 2 p.m. on Sunday by a driver heading north on Remsen Avenue at Avenue L. Police said the girl was apparently crossing the street when she was struck. The front end of the SUV was heavily crushed by the impact with the girl. People fly up and down Remsen Avenue with very little regard for human life. [The driver] looked like she was in a rush and crushed the girl, local resident Shane Messler told amNewYork.
Gowanus resident starts My Local Heroes page
Gowanus resident Eleanor Traubman has started a Facebook page called My Local Heroes to pay tribute to essential workers and community workers who have helped others during the pandemic. One of the people on the page is Tiffany Davis, head of Red Hook Art Project, who mobilized resources to feed people who are food-insecure. Others include mail carriers, fashion designers and a bike shop owner, according to News 12 Brooklyn.
Compiled by Raanan Geberer.
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| SARS-CoV-2 invasion of central nervous system through olfactory tract | |||||||||||
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to claim lives throughout the world, the evidence is mounting that the severe acute respiratory syndrome ... | |||||||||||
| 2:00 AM 6/8/2020 - Man-made inserts into Spike Protein of Sars-Cov-2, according to the researchers: Norwegian scientist Birger Sorensen claims coronavirus was lab-made and 'not natural in origin' | |||||||||||
Man-made inserts into Spike Protein of Sars-Cov-2, according to the researchers:
Norwegian scientist Birger Sorensen claims coronavirus was lab-made and 'not natural in origin' | Tech News | Startups News https://techstartups.com/2020/06/07/norwegian-scientist-birger-sorensen-claims-coronavirus-lab-made-not-natural-origin/
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| Norwegian scientist creates controversy about the origin of the virus: - This virus does not have a natural origin - NRK Norway - Overview of news from different parts of the country | |||||||||||
In a recent study published in the acclaimed Quarterly Review of Biophysics , Sørensen and the British professor Angus Dalgleish show that the coronavirus's so-called spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.
The research duo also points out that the virus has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans. According to Sørensen, this is quite unusual for viruses that cross species barriers.
According to Sørensen, the virus has properties that differ greatly from SARS, and which have never been detected in nature.
- When we technically describe the virus, we see that it has not come about in a natural development. It's done by Americans and Chinese, as part of what's called "gain of function" studies. It is done all over the world. You say you don't, but it happens all the time in advanced labs, according to Sørensen.
China and the United States have for many years collaborated on coronavirus research. In so-called gain of function tests, the virus's infectivity is artificially increased to make it easier to use in scientific experiments. Such manipulated viruses are called "chimera" .
British spy chief: - A lab accident
In recent days, Sørensen's findings have sparked fierce debate in the British press.
Sir Richard Dearlove, who was head of British Foreign Affairs MI6 from 1999 to 2004, tells the Daily Telegraph newspaper that the work of the research duo shows that the pandemic that paralyzes the world may have started in a laboratory.
- I think this started as an accident. This raises the question of whether China will assume responsibility and whether China should pay compensation. I think this will make all countries think through their relationship with China and how they relate to China's leadership, Dearlove told the newspaper.
However, a Downing Street spokesman responds to Dearlove's assertion that there is currently no evidence that the corona virus is man-made.
For months, there have been claims that the virus may have leaked from the laboratory to the Virology Institute in Wuhan, one of China's most advanced virus laboratories.
The claims are completely rebuffed by the department's management, who claim the lab has never had viruses that are at all similar to SARS-CoV-2.
- This is pure fabrication. Our institute received the first clinical trials with this virus on December 30, says head of department Wang Yanyi to the Chinese state television station CGTN .
China has still not identified the index patient, or the exact location where the outbreak started. The Chinese CDC has conducted surveys of the first infected fish market in Wuhan to indicate that the infection did not occur there .
However, Sørensen believes that Chinese scientists have first discussed the modified sequences in the virus surface. But in recent months he believes China has put a lid on all such studies.
- The inserted sequences should never have been published. Had it been today, it would never have happened. It was a big mistake the Chinese made. The inserted sequences have a functionality that we describe. We explain why they are essential. But the Chinese pointed to them first, says Sørensen.
In the study, Sørensen thanks Chief Scientist John Fredrik Moxnes at the Defense Research Institute (FFI) for "invaluable help" in the work.
Moxnes says he has used his knowledge of computing power to work with Sørensen and his company Immunor in vaccine development.
- Modern vaccine development is about computing power and biotechnology, in which it is important that Norway is involved, Moxnes told NRK.
Don't think vaccine candidates will work
Sørensen believes the current vaccine candidates will be at high risk of side effects because they target the so-called spike protein of the virus, where 80% of the genetic material is so-called human-like.
- 78.4% of the epitopes in the spike protein are identical to us as humans. And the consequence of this is that there is a 78.4% probability of having side effects in some form of vaccines that target this protein.
Vaccine trials against viruses such as Dengue fever and HIV have shown significant risk that the vaccines can actually lead to more serious illness, through a process called antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE).
Sørensen is now working on developing his own vaccine candidate called Biovacc-19, which targets the 20% of the virus genetic material not shared by humans.
However, there has been little Norwegian interest in funding a vaccine trial in Norway.
- We do not participate in the big game around being first to finish. What we have created is a vaccine candidate that is fundamentally different from everyone else. Anyway, the best vaccines will be funded and gain, says Sørensen.
The article is updated with commentary from John Fredrik Moxnes.
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| Norwegian scientist Birger Sorensen claims coronavirus was lab-made and 'not natural in origin' | Tech News | Startups News | |||||||||||
Just after we thought the question about the origin of coronavirus has been settled, a new study from Norwegian virologist Birger Sørensen is now reigniting the debate about the possible origin of the deadly coronavirus. In a new peer-reviewed paper published together with Professor Angus Dalgleish of St Georges Hospital at the University of London, Sorensen claimed the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is not natural in origin.
According to the study, which was published in the Quarterly Review of Biophysics, the authors found that the coronaviruss spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted. The inserted sequences should never have been published. Had it been today, it would never have happened. It was a big mistake the Chinese made. The inserted sequences have a functionality that we describe. We explain why they are essential. But the Chinese pointed to them first, Sørensen told the NRK.
INSERTS: These are the sequences Sørensen thinks point to that the virus has no natural origin. The sequences were first described by Chinese scientists.
The eye opening claims also found that the virus had been doctored to bind to humans: We are aware that these findings could have political significance and raise troubling questions. The two researchers also pointed out that the virus has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans. According to Sørensen, this is quite unusual for viruses that cross species barriers. According to Sørensen, the virus has properties that differ greatly from SARS, and which have never been detected in nature.
Spike trimer (a) top view and (b) side view. The specific receptor binding motif (RBM) is located on the sequence (437-508), while the receptor binding domain (RBD) has a broader location (319-541) ref. <a href="https://www.uniprot.org/uniprot/P0DTC2" rel="nofollow">https://www.uniprot.org/uniprot/P0DTC2</a>. The charged cysteine associated domains are Cys131-Cys166, Cys336- Cys361, Cys391-Cys525Cys538-Cys590. As can be seen, there is a high concentration of positive charged surface exposed amino acids within the receptor domain next to the receptor binding motif.
Sørensen said, When we technically describe the virus, we see that it has not come about in a natural development. Its done by Americans and Chinese, as part of whats called gain of function studies. It is done all over the world. You say you dont, but it happens all the time in advanced labs.
The authors also highlight the lack of mutation since its discovery, which suggests it was already fully adapted to humans. The study goes on to explain the rationale for the development of Biovacc-19, a candidate vaccine for COVID-19 that is now in advanced pre-clinical development.
The initial paper was rejected by well-known journals such as Nature and the Journal of Virology back in April before the manuscript of the paper was later accepted and published on Cambridge University Press website, according to a report from the Telegraph. The conclusions of the study were also dismissed by Imperial College London and the Francis Crick Institute.
Below is the abstract of the study.
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| #Superspreaders and their abilities can be traced by monitoring their cell phones. That's what they do in Israel, and that's what they most likely did in Munich at #Oktoberfest. Once identified, the (often silent, asymptomatic) super-spreaders become the Viral Bombs for others. | M.N.: Can it be intentional, by design? Superspreading events are happening... more than what could be explained by chance. The frequency of superspreading is beyond what we could have imagined. Coronavirus superspreaders are to blame for pandemic... | |||||||||||
https://covid-19-review.blogspot.com/2020/06/superspreaders-and-their-abilities-can.html
Coronavirus Super-spreaders - News Review In Brief _______________________________________________________________________
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| Coronavirus superspreaders are to blame for pandemic, Tel Aviv study finds | |||||||||||
It is not yet known what causes someone to become a superspreader.
By Aaron Sull, World Israel News
At the outset of the coronavirus pandemic, many researchers believed an infected individual can only spread the disease to a few people, but a new study shows that some individuals, known as superspreaders, can infect an undetermined amount of people.
The study, conducted by Tel Aviv Universitys School of Molecular Cell Biology and Biotechnology, followed the genetic sequences of coronavirus samples from 200 Israeli patients. They were able to track the viruss origin to the person who brought it with them from overseas.
The study showed that over 80 percent of them were infected by 1 to 10 percent of foreign superspreaders.
A similar Chinese study published on the website Research Square also showed the majority of those infected came from a select number of superspreaders.
Based on a sample size of a little over 1,000 coronavirus patients, the researchers deduced that 80 percent of them were infected by superspreaders.
The researchers also found 70 percent of those tested with the coronavirus didnt pass it on to anyone else.
Thats the picture we have so far, Ben Cowling, one of the studys co-authors, told Business Insider. Superspreading events are happening more than we expected, more than what could be explained by chance. The frequency of superspreading is beyond what we could have imagined.
Now we know which measures might give you the most bang for your buck if we could stop the superspreading from happening, wed benefit the most people, he added.
It is not yet known if there is a limit to the number of people a superspreader can infect, nor is it clear as to what causes someone to become a superspreader.
Super spreaders are people who for whatever reason, immunologically, anatomically, socially tend to infect a lot of people, George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at UC San Francisco, told Sacramentos KXTV.
The normal person in the pre-shutdown days would have infected three or four other people. Superspreaders can infect 30 or 40, theres one guy who infected 113 people in New York, he said.
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| Coronavirus superspreaders are to blame for pandemic, Tel Aviv study finds | |||||||||||
Superspreading events are happening more than we expected, more than what could be explained by chance. The frequency of superspreading is ... |
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Selected and Editorial Posts
THE REAL COUP WAS IN 2016 | THE PSYCHOANALYSIS OF INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS
The real Coup was in 2016, and it was performed by the corrupt, pro neo-Nazi oriented, Abwehr bought and subverted, the Rightist wing of the GOP, the Broidy-Manafort ring in its latest reincarnation; and by the other alumni of the Abwehr Law School, a.k.a. Roy Cohn’s Law Firm: Little Duce Giuliani, “dirty trickster” Roger Stone, and their circles, climbing and clawing their ways to Power and Money. And apparently, some officers of the New York Branch of the FBI were their ideological and operational “stormtroopers”. Search the Anthony Weiner sexting affair scandal as FBI operation, much under-researched, under-investigated, and under-publicized.
If only a part of all these legitimate and well based suspicions and accusations against the New York branch of the FBI are proven or sufficiently demonstrated, this question would be quite legitimate: Was at least a part of the NY FBI branch corrupt, rotten, in Trump’s pocket, and under possible influences of the foreign agents?
Investigate the “STORMTROOPERS” – the alleged “pro-Trumpists” within the NY branch of the FBI, and look into the general health of the whole branch.
Investigate James Kallstrom and others!
Investigate the Abwehr – Roy Cohn Law School and all its “graduates”.
Investigate the political corruption in both parties. Investigate the corruption and failures within the FBI, and their root causes. The proof is in the pudding, sadly but undeniably.
Michael Novakhov | 7:38 AM 11/26/2019 – Post Link
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The Psychoanalysis of Intelligence Operations And the Diagnostic Signs and Features of Abwehr Operations – Preliminary Web Review By Michael Novakhov
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Check out C-SPAN’s Impeachment Inquiry Page: https://www.c-span.org/impeachment |
Post Link | C-SPAN has launched a new web page, c-span.org/impeachment, devoted to Congress’ impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. The goal is to provide one-stop shopping for all of C-SPAN’s coverage of the inquiry, including the latest Hill tweets, various news conferences and hearings, and the Trump Administration’s response.
» Saved Stories – None: C-SPAN Launches Impeachment Coverage Page
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C-SPAN has launched a new web page, c-span.org/ impeachment , devoted to Congress’ impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. The goal … Saved Stories – None
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C-SPAN has launched a new web page, c-span.org/ impeachment , devoted to Congress’ impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. The goal … Saved Stories – None
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» Saved Stories - None: Psychological Science and COVID-19: Conspiracy Theories
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For example, one conspiracy theory argues that COVID-19 was designed in a Chinese laboratory as a bioweapon against the West. There have since ... Saved Stories - None
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For example, one conspiracy theory argues that COVID-19 was designed in a Chinese laboratory as a bioweapon against the West. There have since ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: Fact check: Textbook definition of coronavirus as common cold doesn't include COVID-19
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Here's the difference between COVID-19 and other illnesses ... to more serious diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that was ... is a strain of coronavirus that has not previously been identified in humans. ... We rate ...
29/05/20 13:54 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
Here's the difference between COVID-19 and other illnesses ... to more serious diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that was ... is a strain of coronavirus that has not previously been identified in humans. ... We rate ...
» Saved Stories - None: Rabbis can serve in German military for the first time in 90 years
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Jewish soldiers could only use Protestant or Catholic military chaplains. ... were ordered to shut their doors in mid-March to stem the spread of the coronavirus . ... Leaders in the Orthodox community say they do not condone school ...
29/05/20 13:53 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
Jewish soldiers could only use Protestant or Catholic military chaplains. ... were ordered to shut their doors in mid-March to stem the spread of the coronavirus . ... Leaders in the Orthodox community say they do not condone school ...
» Saved Stories - None: PARTLY FALSE: COVID-19 is thrombosis, not pneumonia
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Claim: COVID - 19 , the disease caused by the coronavirus , is not pneumonia but a form of thrombosis or blood clotting in the blood vessels. "Autopsies ... Saved Stories - None
28/05/20 08:18 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
Claim: COVID - 19 , the disease caused by the coronavirus , is not pneumonia but a form of thrombosis or blood clotting in the blood vessels. "Autopsies ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: Make It British call amid cheap pork import fears
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According to NPA data the UK standard pig price (SPP) has remained steady throughout the Covid - 19 crisis as the sector has been less affected by ... Saved Stories - None
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According to NPA data the UK standard pig price (SPP) has remained steady throughout the Covid - 19 crisis as the sector has been less affected by ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: COVID-19: Silent Spreaders Of The Disease Are Everywhere – Iwu
27/05/20 20:42 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
Iwu made this know while speaking with journalists yesterday in Owerri, the Imo State Capital. He said this individuals who he named ” silent spreaders ” ... Saved Stories - None
27/05/20 20:42 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
Iwu made this know while speaking with journalists yesterday in Owerri, the Imo State Capital. He said this individuals who he named ” silent spreaders ” ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: No question - the U.S. should back India. It is not disputed territory. All of traditional Jammu and Kashmir is Indian, areas occcupied or ceded by Pakistan, Ladakh, Aksai Chin. It is all Indian, illegally occupied under internationa
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No question - the U.S. should back India. It is not disputed territory. All of traditional Jammu and Kashmir is Indian, areas occcupied or ceded by Pakistan, Ladakh, Aksai Chin. It is all Indian, illegally occupied under international la...
27/05/20 20:41 from Saved Stories from Michael_Novakhov (1 sites)
No question - the U.S. should back India. It is not disputed territory. All of traditional Jammu and Kashmir is Indian, areas occcupied or ceded by Pakistan, Ladakh, Aksai Chin. It is all Indian, illegally occupied under international la...
» Saved Stories - None: COVID-19 used as new cover for increase in anti-Semitism
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Congedo pointed out the origins and subtleties of the anti-Semitic rhetoric by politicians and invoked by some people opposed to the measures Acton ... Saved Stories - None
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Congedo pointed out the origins and subtleties of the anti-Semitic rhetoric by politicians and invoked by some people opposed to the measures Acton ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: Why the Public Should Wear Masks During the COVID-19 Pandemic
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There is no question that personal protective equipment (PPE) plays a central role in our strategies to confront the COVID - 19 epidemic . Infection ... Saved Stories - None
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There is no question that personal protective equipment (PPE) plays a central role in our strategies to confront the COVID - 19 epidemic . Infection ... Saved Stories - None
» Saved Stories - None: Tracking and Treating the Coronavirus in Human Waste
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When the virus that causes COVID -19 finds its way into wastewater, what ... “People can be asymptomatic but are shedding the virus in their stool ,” ... Saved Stories - None
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